Scary links

5th July, 2010 - Posted by admin - Comments Off

Unger “Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors

The effect of several economic sectors is to cool the Earth for an initial period before their heating effect arises. There are several surprises e.g. the “Industry” sector has a cooling effect for a few decades.

Ramanathan and Yangyang “The Copenhagen Accord for limiting global warming

A Plan B for climate mitigation taking short-lived climate forcing agents (e.g. soot, methane) seriously.

National Snow and Ice Data Centre “Arctic sea ice news

A daily measure of the Arctic sea ice extent.

Polar Science Centre “Arctic sea ice volume anomaly

Sea ice volume is decreasing faster than sea ice extent.

Climate Interactive’s C-ROADS system “The Climate Scoreboard

Using computer models from the IPCC, estimates the risen in temperature for 2100 given the pledges to control carbon emissions that nations have made since the Copenhagen Accord. Latest estimate 3.9 C. (Compare this with a Daily Mail article “Doomsday: How 4C temperature rise this century will change world beyond recognition and threaten human survival“)

An extra worry is Climate Interactive’s comment on the models they use:

There are positive feedback loops in the real climate system that are not modeled in the current version of C-ROADS. Additionally, C-ROADS is based upon and calibrated to the results of models from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Recent science suggests that AR4 may underestimate the time-scale and magnitude of climate change. As a result, we believe that the Climate Scoreboard may well be presently a ‘best case’ interpretation of the long-term impacts of proposals on the table in the UNFCCC.

Posted on: July 5, 2010

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